01
Why index skew is not a forecastindex skew 不是预测
Put skew is routinely read as the market's estimate of crash probability. It isn't. It is the price of a constrained good — which is why it can steepen with no change in anyone's view.
put skew 常被当作市场对崩盘概率的估计。它不是。它是一个受约束商品的价格 —— 这正是为什么它可以在没有任何人改变看法的情况下变陡。
Status状态
First piece · in preparation.
第一篇 · 写作中。